Historically low-interest rates, job growth, and pandemic conditions made Utah a highly attractive state for both homebuyers and investors. However, the sale volume has decreased significantly in the past year, with 3,219 houses sold in September 2021, representing a 26.7% decline in year-over-year comparisons. Average home value: $562,693. The bull market that has been in place for quite some time appears to have lost its momentum. Just to give you an idea, Utah Association of Realtors president Dave Robison said that in-migration is hugely impacting Utah real estate. Eskic, however, is predicting Utah home prices will drop 9% year over year in 2023. So players should expect to see both challenges and opportunities in 2022. But having price declines is really unusual, Wood said. Wood said he was a little bit more optimistic, predicting minor blips that will stabilize into the green after only a few quarters. , The direction and pace at which housing supply changes indicate whether the options for buyers are increasing or decreasing. Copyright 2023 Deseret News Publishing Company. Even during the 2008 Recession, Utah felt the pain but, comparatively speaking, suffered a less deep economic hit. Updated January 2023: By searching, you agree to the Terms of Use, andPrivacy Policy. A year from now whoevers right has to shave their beard off.. After the next seven months, the median price fell by 14% to $485,829, erasing month-over-month percent increases until finally turning negative 2.1% in December, Wood wrote in his report. With a $105,000 annual income, Branca said he was approved to buy a $550,000 home. Sellers could no longer do whatever they wanted, Perry said, and suddenly buyers had more options at least those who could still afford to buy. The beautiful Rocky Mountains are our backyard, giving us an unlimited opportunity for outdoor experiences of any kind! In January 2023, home prices in Utah were down 3.0% compared to last year, selling for a median priceof $518,200. Shouldnt I wait for mortgage rates to decrease before I buy? What is the housing market like right now? Considering how crazy the market was in 2020 and 2021, here is the Utah housing market forecast 2022 edition. The Utah housing market benefits from the states attractivity, which features a strong economy and job market. He has a natural inclination to the arts and creatives. . Wasatch County makes its way to our Utah housing market forecast for 2022 because it has attracted big-city folks from San Francisco and New York for relocation. It boasts some of the best snow on planet earth! Industry experts and analysts have recently released their different takes on various US housing markets. I like the word contraction better than collapse, said Jim Wood, director of research and science and the Ivory-Boyer senior fellow at the Kem C. Gardner Institute. Oakland Real Estate Market: To Invest or Not to Invest? The rental market is not affordable and is experiencing high rental prices. But what about the increase in interest rates? READ REDFIN'S, Do not sell or share my personal information. While home prices have decreased about 3% month over month, home prices are up nearly 9% year over year in August. Utah is expected to continue its rapid growth and will need to see an increase in available housing to accommodate the incoming population. The researchers Jim Wood and Dejan Eskic, both from the University of Utahs Kem C. Gardner Institute had a friendly debate Friday during Ivory Homes annual private gathering of hundreds of homebuilders and other industry partners from across the state. So I hope the industry is close to right-sized and things can get better from here, Kelman said. It was the year that put homeownership far out of reach. Inflation is outpacing most salaries, decreasing the value of the dollar. While that remains to be seen, whats clear is that demographic tailwinds will keep the demand for housing robust this decade. With uncertainty in the economy, predictions for Utahs housing market vary greatly. This was down 45% compared to the same period the previous year and down 27.8% compared to the third quarter of 2022. Even with the recent slowdown, a correctly priced home will sell, and it will sell with record equity growth over the last 10-year average. A home is listed for sale in West Jordan on Wednesday, Dec. 21, 2022. Thats when buyers found their affordability ceiling. Listing activity fell 8.3% from the third quarter, but that wasnt surprising given seasonal factors. In addition, the number of homes has increased along with significant population growth. Even with todays rising mortgage rates, it will continue to be the time to buy a house in Utah. In addition, while year-on-year figures still show growth, monthly data is beginning to tell a different story of dropping prices, a trend that is expected to continue through the rest of 2022 and into 2023. And it looks like that trend is not going to end any time soon. Once the market rebounds, buyers can be in an even more powerful position when the market shifts back to a more lopsided sellers market. Yes! These numbers are nothing to worry about, as they indicate a return to a more balanced housing market in Utah. Doing read more, Click here to browse our Real Estate Agent Directory and contact top-rated agents in your area! 30-year mortgage rate: 5.59000%. Here's your Official 2022 Utah housing Market Forecast in Salt Lake City. Along with his love of family, he has a very strong competitive spirit, is passionate about personal development, and truly cares for others. A good indication of the markets strength and inventory is the average number of days properties stay listed. How could I possibly give an objective opinion? This gives us a 23.7% combined overall growth rate This projected growth puts them ahead of other booming markets like Boise City ID, Spokane WA, and Indianapolis IN. AirDNA vs. Mashvisor: Which One Is the Better Source of Airbnb Data? Given that interest rates more than doubled in less than a year, its impossible for there not to be an impact on the housing market. How is the real estate market in Utah? How far will they fall? The latest housing data shows the median priced home in Utah's most populated county increased to $550,000 in the third quarter of 2021. As mortgage rates are at record highs in 20 years by 7.08%. They climbed up so high so fast. A low or shrinking percentage of homes selling above list price suggests that the market is becoming less competitive.. Yeah, thats a valid point, Wood replied, drawing laughs from the crowd. In Utah, housing prices have begun to decline, down from their peak in May, when the median sales price of Salt Lake County homes was $565,600. 1 housing market in the nation for 2022. Hes predicting Utah home prices will drop 9% year over year in 2023. Prices were 3.7% lower than in the third quarter of 2022. There are currently 8,551 residential homes for sale in the United States. Affirming this projection, Wood asserts . The housing market in West Jordan is competitive, with the average listed property receiving five offers and selling within 27 days on the market. If you are using a screen reader, or having trouble reading this website, please call Redfin Customer Support for help at 1-844-759-7732. Click here to browse our Real Estate Agent Directory and contact top-rated agents in your area! Average income: 74197. With the market starting to change, weve seen a decrease of 25.3% in sales in the Utah housing market, and 49% of homes had price drops. No, you shouldnt wait to buy a home. So many factors come into play. Branca said if someone like him is struggling to buy, he cant imagine what its like for people living on lower incomes. The number of days on the market had also increased sharply at 39 median D.o.M., compared to 15 the previous year, further indicating that the days when properties were being snatched off the market as soon as they were listed are long gone. In many respects it will be an uphill journey given. Salt Lake City, Utah Just like Utah peaches Forecast home price change by May 2022: 23.5% Local professional: Dave Robison, broker and owner of goBE Realty, and former president of Utah Association of Realtors and Salt Lake Board of Realtors What makes the Salt Lake City market poised for growth? Wood, who has studied Utah's housing market for decades, forecasts that real estate sales will remain steady in 2022 while home prices will rise 10%-12%. However, the spike in listing prices, mortgage rates, and rents will somehow be offset as income is also expected to rise. They can also indicate whether homes are lingering on the market or being sold faster than sellers are listing them. Salt Lake Housing Market Forecast with Real Estate Prices for 2032: August 2032: Open: 666286: Min: 635950: After a peak of the housing market in May 2022, when the Utah median home price reached a record $577,500, Utah house prices have slowly been decreasing, although they remain higher than they were the year prior. Homes in Big Willow Creek Estates are under construction in Draper on Friday, Nov. 11, 2022. That was also a time when the national economy and Utah faced a struggling job market, Wood noted. In 2022, that was Joseph Brancas reality, along with plenty of other Utahns who wanted to join the mad dash to homeownership, but ultimately ended up walking away. Heres what volatile mortgage rates are doing to your purchasing power, Stuck between rent hikes and high home prices, this family is scraping by to afford a home, still cant afford to buy something at a significantly lower quality, How the housing market is making boomers richer and millennials poorer, how many other Utahns the market has priced out, 79% of Utah households couldnt afford the states median priced home, Why two housing experts disagree on how much Utah home prices will drop in 2023, National Association of Realtors chief economist Lawrence Yun, What state lawmakers are doing to address Utahs housing crisis, Department of Labor reports that child labor has increased by nearly 70% since 2018, Feds hardwire child care benefits to $39 billion in CHIPS Act funding, Grit and circumstance: Bestselling author Angela Duckworth brings her wisdom to BYU, The starter home in Utah is extinct: How first-time homebuyers could get 20K for new homes, How a new service aims to help teens remove explicit internet images. Like Salt Lake City, the West Valley City housing market is competitive, with listed properties receiving four offers on average and selling after 41 days on the market. There was a 98.0% sale-to-list price, down 2.7 points year over year. If they hadnt been so aggressive in 2020 and 2021, wed be talking about unemployment now rather than inflation. He also noted it was really Congress that juiced the economy with so much one-time stimulus money, not the Fed. whether homes are becoming more or less affordable. If you ask Branca, 2022 definitely wasnt the year for buyers either. The market was suddenly plunged into ice cold water when the Federal Reserves war with record levels of inflation sent mortgage rates skyward, and the mask that helped drive home prices so high suddenly lifted. increase. This data does not reflect actual moves. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. The lights shut off. Do not sell or share my personal information. As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. In June 2020, the median sales price across Utah averaged $363,600 and has now jumped to $580,000. However, because of the stiff competition, Utahns who are looking to buy property should prepare themselves not just financially and physically but also mentally. Eskic, however, is predicting Utah home prices will drop 9% year over year in 2023. After a big boom over the past two years, there will essentially be no change nationally in home prices in 2023, said the National Association of Realtors chief economist Lawrence Yun. Wood, the Ivory-Boyer Senior Fellow at the University of Utahs Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute, detailed his forecast report commissioned by the Salt Lake Board of Realtors, explaining why he still feels optimistic for real estate even if 2023 wont be a year of celebration.. By Eskics calculations, 79% of Utah households couldnt afford the states median priced home as of the third quarter of 2022. When he first started looking in November 2021 and into early 2022, Salt Lake Countys median single-family home price had hit $580,000, up 24% from a year earlier, according to the Salt Lake Board of Realtors. 36 days on the market. The Utah housing market has been following similar trends as the ones observed nationwide, including a white-hot real estate market characterized by a low inventory and high demand for housing. The median days on the market was 70 days, up 47 year over year., The direction and pace at which home prices are changing are indicators of the strength of the housing market andwhether homes are becoming more or less affordable. Like West Valley City, West Jordan is considered to be a suburb of the capital city Salt Lake City. There were 73 homes sold in December this . Cache County Housing Market Trends. If you ask Perry, they have a silver lining. It isnt easy to quantify the benefits of delaying purchasing your primary residence. The median days on the market was 70 days, up 47 year over year. The music stopped. They can step back and wait for the dust to settle., As a result, Wood predicted price declines that have been tumbling since May will stabilize by the third quarter of 2023, and the annual median sales price for 2023 will likely be within a few percentage points one way or another of 2022., Worst case scenario, Wood added, prices down about 5%; best case scenario, prices equal to 2022.. The average sale price in the fourth quarter rose a modest .6% from the fourth quarter of 2021 to $604,105. Median sale price: $611,600. Please check your email to verify your account. Salt Lake City Real Estate Market Forecast, Salt Lake (Utah state) home price prediction. If 2022 was a roller coaster year for the housing market, 2023 is expected to bring a painful but necessary real estate hangover. How can I get a free valuation of a home in Utah? increase. The home was 2,500 square feet, four bedrooms, two and a half bathrooms, sat on a quarter acre lot, and they lived well within their means on a $1,000 a month mortgage payment. Sign In. If you would like to buy a house in this dynamic state, the best time to house hunt is in the early spring (April) when inventory is at its highest in preparation for the hot summer real estate market, and Utah house prices are at their lowest. Like, they were not outrageous houses or homes that would have been that (price) five or 10 years ago.. Utah continues to be a light upon a hill to others throughout the States and even worldwide. Join Us RELATED: 'It's daunting:' How housing costs are affecting Utah's ski resort staff Listing prices, rents, and mortgage rates are all expected to climb while income rises. Looking ahead to 2023 and what it will bring to the housing market, two of Utahs leading housing experts are respectfully disagreeing with each other. Buying read more, FastExpert, Inc is a California Licensed Broker. Utahs housing market is starting to feel the rising interest rates, resulting in plateaued price growth. Winter sports are a highlight in Utah. However, because of the stiff competition, Utahns who are looking to buy property should prepare themselves not just financially and physically but also mentally. West Valley City is assimilated to a suburb of Salt Lake City, but it is also the second most populous city in the state, with 140,230 residents. With the low amount of inventory, sellers will continue to enjoy multiple offers, with some buyers willing to fork over way above market price to beat out other potential buyers. However, despite the increased inventory in the past months, there were only three months of housing supply available in September 2022, still a long shot away from the five to six months required for a balanced market. Significantly higher inventory levels gave buyers a lot more options than they have become accustomed to. Some buy-and-hold while others enter the rental market for passive income. Search and compare real estate agents near you. But Wood is more bullish than Eskic. Both bearded men chuckled, along with laughs and applause from the audience. Utahs housing experts disagree over how much home prices will decline, though they remain confident that 2023 will not bring a full blown, 2007-like crash, and that Utahs strong job economy will still largely insulate it from any negative impacts of a recession. Utah Housing Market at a Glance September 2022 Even this far into 2022 with the mortgage rate hikes, Utah remains one of the hottest markets. Even this far into 2022 with the mortgage rate hikes, Utah remains one of the hottest markets. Therefore, although Utah home prices may decline in the coming months, the Utah housing market should remain relatively strong and correct itself for more sustainable growth. TREC:Info About Brokerage Services,Consumer Protection Notice. The cops came and busted everyone.. The average rate for 2022, based on the forecasts of seven organization . So from that affordability perspective, I think its going to keep the market from accelerating back to have a more positive price appreciation., Wood said thats a good point, but added the 70s and early 80s saw interest rates that hit as high as 18%. between 2021-12-31 and 2022-12-31. Additionally, both Wood and Eskic predict Utahs estimated 31,000-unit housing shortage will continue to keep home prices high, even if the state sees some price drops, so they expect Utahs housing affordability crisis to remain a persistent issue that is pricing out more than 75% of Utahns from affording the states median-priced home. All Rights Reserved, What will 2023 bring to the housing market? To be included in this dataset, a Redfin.com user REDFIN and all REDFIN variants, TITLE FORWARD, WALK SCORE, and the R logos, are trademarks of Redfin Corporation, registered or pending in the USPTO. Contact Us, Real Estate Blog Wood and Eskic expect a staggering 40% to 50% drop in the number of new homes produced in Utah over the next two years. Or if its little more meaningful declines, a 10% decline, take advantage of those because 10 years from now youll see much better conditions.. Love hiking, biking, or camping? Thats where it gets tough. Like many other housing markets around the country, the Utah housing market has reached new heights during the pandemic as a result of a perfect storm of low inventory, high demand, and interest rates near historic lows. Utah faces a shortage of 31,000 homes. They say it will pose challenges, especially for homebuilders, but also rebalance a market thats priced some two-thirds of Utahns out of affording the median priced home. READ REDFIN'S FAIR HOUSING POLICY. A bubble is highly unlikely at this point in time because a bubble is defined as a prolonged period of actual price decline, not moderation or deceleration. Are there enough homes for sale to meet buyer demand? So unless we have a real serious recession, I think prices have some support given our economy., Wood also said even if home prices dropped 10%, they wouldnt set off a wave of foreclosures, unlike what happened in 2008, which just pulled prices down. Three of the top ten most overvalued US housing markets are in Utah. Inventory is on its way up, with 13,795 homes for sale in September 2022, 25,3% more than the previous year. Historical Utah real estate data and trends are included below the latest update. This would place . Rising financing costs will hinder housing demand and we may see home sales cooling. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K. While neither Wood nor Eskic are predicting a catastrophic, 2007-like crash, they do expect 2023 to be a challenging year, especially for homebuilders that leaned hard into speculative building in 2021. Although demand has softened compared to last year, pushing home price growth into single-digit territory for the first time in 12 months, moderation in home price growth may encourage more buyers to return to the market in the months ahead, and may also be welcome news for sellers aiming to sell and buy at the same time., Copyright 2023 Deseret News Publishing Company. If you dont see our email and have already checked your spam or junk folder, please give us a call at 1 (800) 319-0511. These two organizations along with Freddie Mac and the National Association of Realtors predict that rates will steadily rise throughout 2022. Buyers were actually offering pizza, cookies, even Utah Jazz tickets to literally sweeten the deal, all kinds of crazy stuff that real estate agents had to make sure to handle correctly. So hire an experienced top-producing agent to help you price, market, and negotiate the best deal possible. Utah Housing Market Forecast, What To Look For In 2022 The housing market in 2021 made the "American dream" feel more and more out of reach for a lot of people. #UPDATE firms predicting that U.S. home prices will continue to fall in 2023:@FannieMae@Zondahome@JBREC Zelman & Associates@KPMG@GoldmanSachs@MorganStanley@WellsFargo@MoodysAnalyticsTD Bank@CapEconomics@PantheonMacroAmherstING@RedfinYieldstreet. Eskic, however, is predicting Utah home prices will drop 9% year over year in 2023. This dataset excludes all rentals data. So its really tough to say, but I think its going to be minimal negative, or negative positive, Yun said. The top 5 states homebuyers searched to move to were Florida, Texas, Tennessee, Arizona, and South Carolina while California, New York, District Of Columbia, Illinois, and Massachusetts were the top 5 states homebuyers searched to move from. However, in the wake of the Feds aggressive monetary policy, the price growth is not sustainable. Inventory levels have skyrocketed, with the average number of homes on the market up a remarkable 248% from the same period in 2021. A dear client asked me the other day Preston, why do you love Utah? It sounds clich, but I initially answered with a questionWhat isnt there to love about Utah?. The fi read more, Click here to browse our Real Estate Agent Directory and contact top-rated agents in your area! In December 2022, Cache County home prices were up 2.1% compared to last year, selling for a median price of $444K. This is the MOST ACCURATE UTAH Housing Market Forecast for 2022. The Utah housing market is poised for economic growth, continually making it a desirable place to live, bringing with it a demand for homes, straining supply, and causing prices to remain and increase in value. Additionally. Right now, its close to 5. To ensure a good return on investment, we encourage real estate investors to perform their due diligence and seek out the help of local Utah real estate professionals. Short-term correction followed by continued growth and price increases. Based on Redfin calculations of home data from MLS and/or public records. Utah benefits from a strong economy, and, despite Utah housing prices being higher than the national average, there is still more demand for houses than available inventory. The 2022 for-sale home supply is expected to begin recovering from recent declines, but millennial demand will likely keep supply limited through at least 2025. Compared to the third quarter of 2022, average home prices fell in every area other than Summit County, where they rose .8%. So (many have) stopped new construction and consequently weve seen new production just fall off, Wood said. 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