The following are illustrative examples of explanatory power. H. Huxley, letter, September 23, 1860. Lucy wants to study changes in cognitive skills, moral reasoning, and social behavior across the lifespan. The first part focuses on the importance of the improbability of the outcome. Ask whether an explanation for the outcome already exists. This is why, for example, we are amused but not persuaded by the rooster who thinks that the sun is raised each morning by his mighty crowing. After significantly departing from the mean level of competence, we would expect that the next attempt would be closer to the current mean. An experiment that makes it possible to determine decisively between alternative hypotheses. The second premise states that the observable outcome has happenedthat it really has been observed. . . C. It's correlated, but not causal. e. a and c, In the case study of head football coach Tom Martinez, Coach Martinez dealt with the area of aggressive play by c. with the intent to harm psychologically. WebTranscribed image text: www.bbt.com Our Time.com Cesearch Foundations, Process, and Ethics Savod Which of the following is an explanatory hypothesis? Web16.4 Summary of Chapter Sixteen. Null hypothesis : this is known as the default hypothesis.It states that By sheer coincidence, a few of these thousands of dreams are going to seem to come true, and these are the ones that will stick most vividly in my memory (remember the vividness shortcut from Chapter 1). An arson investigator said the man offered an explanation: The suspect said that he was using the gas to start his car and that he felt the jug was too full so he poured out some of the gasoline near the building. Another is to ask whether it predicts the smoothest curve. A century after Darwins visit, his countryman David Lack came here to study the tiny, drab birds that had helped inspire the theory of evolution. Argument doesnt seem to depend on form alone. I found a Thai restaurant and now I go there for lunch every day. d. Aggression facilitates performance only in team-sport athletes. It assigned a central role to gravity, which is, in effect, action at a distance; but it did not offer any account of how gravitational forces can act across space without any intervening physical bodies. Scientists generally base scientific hypotheses on previous observations that cannot satisfactorily be explained with the available scientific theories. One other possible explanation is that as the pulsar spins it might be wobbling due to some strange effect in the inside of the star, though such an effect is not understood and has never been observed before. a. fans become less aggressive after watching a sporting event Rather, it is to say that an argument for magic must meet high standards, and this one does not yet do so. Sample exercise. An explanation is in this way like a machine. Where in the tropics could an English army doctor have seen much hardship and got his arm wounded? . Then NASAs Donald Bogard compared the meteorites fingerprint of noble gases to those found on Mars by the Viking landerand discovered that they matched closely. Together, choices B and C combine to describe what is meant by the phrase "hierarchical organization of life.". . Scientists generally base scientific hypotheses on previous observations that cannot satisfactorily be explained with the available scientific theories. c. Express thoughts but not feelings. Searching for a once volcanic place of origin, researchers ruled out both Venus, because the atmosphere is too thick for such a rock to have escaped, and the moon, since it stopped erupting 3 billion years ago. At the time, I heard that 15 seconds into a 30-second burn both transmission channels died simultaneously, says Hughes. We reviewed their content and use your feedback to keep the quality high. How to Think about High Enough Prior Probability of Explanation. It was a tiny dent, no larger than a nickel, on the main frame of one motorcycle moving along an assembly line that produces about 175 such vehicles every day. They commonly start a large number of small, unpublicized stock funds, each with a different investment strategy, on the assumption that by sheer luck at least one of them will establish a good track record. This is no problem if your subjective expectations are exactly in accord with the evidence. Roughly, since we are not allowing for the cost of commissions, for dividend income, and the like. Shes still really a kittenin fact, shes so small I had to seal up the holes in the garage wall to be sure she didnt slip out and get lostbut she really did the job. b. Instructors found that when a student pilot was scolded for a poor landing, the student usually did better the next time. Living organisms are able to respond to stimulisuch as light, moisture, or another organism. More precisely, the condition is that the prior probability of the observable outcome must be sufficiently low. This is a dirty trick. Improved outcome: An image looking like the outline of the Virgin Mary was seen on the wall of a house, and it remained there when the window of the neighboring house was opened. This terminology is acceptable but can be misleading, since many theories are quite factual and many facts are highly theoretical.[1]. One habitat, selected at random, was sprayed with insecticide, and the other was used as a control. Psychoanalytic theory focuses on ________ and early childhood experiences. Not too badly, if we compare the frequencies of each. An hypothesis is an idea that gives a tentative or temporary explanation to a phenomena. Premise 1 is probably true. In 1695, Edmund Halley began to ponder whether Newtons account of celestial mechanics was correct and, in particular, whether it applied to the motion of comets. a person's unconscious. He has just come from the tropics, for his face is dark, and that is not the natural tint of his skin, for his wrists are fair. B. An observable outcome for which there are fewer possible explanations is thereby that much more improbableand, thus, is thereby that much logically stronger. Far worse than the plumber explanation from Dear Abby, it requires a long list of independently improbable things all to be truealternative ways, for example of accounting for the following: the vast documentation rescued from the German Archives; the elaborate sealed rooms set up for funneling the prisoners to their deaths; the movement of enormous quantities of asphyxiating Xyklon B gas to the death camps; the photographs of mounds of bodies; the vast body of eyewitness testimony by both victims and their murderers; and the otherwise mysterious disappearance from history of millions of Jews. Young women purchase fewer meats than women who are 35 years of age or older. I know of some people with cancer who smoke. . Hundreds of people gathered for a second night Wednesday to see an image described as the outline of the Virgin Mary on a wall of an empty house in Hanover Township, Pa. A. William James was the ________. Normally scientists can trace meteorites back to comets and asteroids, debris left over from the formation of the solar system 4.6 billion years ago. WebThe hypothesis is consistent with new data and investigations used to test its predictions. A) experiential method B) scientific method C) intuitive process D) strategic management process E) account planning philosophy B) scientific method correlated, but not causal. Which occurs more frequentlyburglars or butterfingers? a. aggressive behavior and media violence. b. thought out versus impulsive Sample answer. The independent variable is manipulated to cause-effect on the dependent variable and the dependent variable is measured to examine the effect [6] The probability of two consecutive years of success is no higher than .50 times .50, or .25. In these cases it is better to say that you simply cannot decide, especially if the argument has not ruled out coincidence or deception as alternative explanations. c. Athletic personnel should take part in workshops on aggression and violence. They were all concerned with describing and understanding the inner experience. This argument would have the same form as the first one, differing only in the nature of the observable outcome. unintentional aggression. Although there is no formula for deciding on the improbability of the outcome, there are some helpful strategies that you can follow in making your decision. Dear Abby was a newspaper advice column with a readership of over 110 million in the late 20th Century. , Psychologists at San Jose State studied the traffic violations handled by 10 police officers assigned to routine patrol duty in a California town of 8,000 people. In which of the following situations is aggression likely to occur? A theory predicts events in a broad, general context; a hypothesis makes a specific prediction about a specified set of circumstances. Randomly selected students whom teachers believefalselyto have greater potential end up performing better. Unlike the case of Halleys comet, the observable outcomesa blue anchor on his hand, a military carriage, regulation side-whiskers, an air of commandare where the reasoning begins. They got pregnant shortly thereafter and concluded (and counseled their friends) that thinking too much about it was itself responsible for their failure to conceive. A set of analytical and mathematical tools designed to further the understanding of numerical data. Further, it is not necessary for the prior probability of the explanation to be high; if the explanation were already highly probable, there would be no need for the argument! The sentence A comet with an orbit similar to the 1530 and 1606 comets will appear in December 1758 is the observable outcome, that which the explanation enables us to predict and to better understand. Instrumental aggression is aggression occurring. Ask whether the outcome is too vague. Rabinoff claimed that this was evidence for a causeeffect relationship between TM and the weather. A theory predicts events in a broad, general context; a hypothesis makes a specific prediction about a specified set of circumstances. Examples from the text are The butler did it or The man was a Marine sergeant. c. rewarding sportspersonlike behavior Observable outcome: As my horoscope says, at 3:00 today my bank will call and tell me that they have gone bankrupt and my life savings is lost. Alternative explanation that already exists. Vitamin C is an antioxidant, but exactly how does that connect with the bodys immunity to the cold virus?). In a research study, describes a manner of choosing subjects and assigning them to groups on the basis of chancethat is, randomly. To illustrate this bias, suppose I tell you that I have in mind a set of numbers that includes the numbers 2, 4, and 6, and I then ask you to guess what set of numbers I am thinking of. He argued that, by super-cooling the stomach, acid production was reduced and the ulcer relieved. C. It's correlated, but not causal. In some cases, it can be tempting to accept an explanation with an extremely low prior probability simply because you cannot think of any plausible alternative. I searched the apartment, but it was nowhere to be found. I have a pretty young wife (my second) whom Ive always trusted until last Friday night when I came home, put on my bathrobe and found a well-used pipe in the pocket! [Hint: First find P2P^2P2. Such arguments are typical of science, though are not restricted to it. Which of the following shows the correct order for a scientific explanation? People in the South tend to rate the President more favorably than do people in the North Real estate investment trusts (REITs) experienced a record level of profitability in 2004. For each of the arguments below, offer an alternative explanation that already exists, which thus renders the outcome probable and the argument logically weak. Real estate investment trusts (REITs) experienced a record level of profitability in 2004 Soles Is the frequently observed, poorly understood, phenomenon that people tend to respond favorably to any treatment. There for lunch every day text: www.bbt.com Our Time.com Cesearch Foundations Process. A manner of choosing subjects and assigning them to groups on the basis of chancethat is,.. Happenedthat it really has been observed like a machine some people with cancer who smoke though are not allowing the. And assigning them to groups on the importance of the following is an idea gives! 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